Venezuela-Colombia Relations: From Historic Rivalry to Current Crisis
Current Tensions and Military Build-up
Tensions have escalated in the region as Venezuela has deployed warships and drones to patrol its coastline in response to the United States sending three destroyers to the area. The Venezuelan military has initiated a significant drone deployment and naval patrols along its Caribbean coast.
Border Security and Drug Trafficking Concerns
Venezuela has recently deployed 15,000 troops to the Colombia border to combat drug trafficking. The deployment specifically targets the states of Zulia and Tachira, which border Colombia, with Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello announcing the seizure of 53 tons of drugs this year.
Armed Group Conflicts
Recent developments include violent confrontations between guerrilla groups near the Colombia-Venezuela border. A significant incident occurred when José Manuel Sierra Sabogal, second-in-command of the Second Marquetalia (a FARC dissident group), was allegedly killed in an August ambush. The National Liberation Army (ELN) was accused of carrying out the attack, which also claimed four other fighters’ lives.
Humanitarian Impact
The escalation of clashes between illegal armed groups has led to a severe humanitarian crisis in the Catatumbo region, with over 66,000 people displaced to various areas including Tibú, Ocaña, and Cúcuta, and at least 126 reported casualties according to official figures.
Diplomatic Relations
Colombia faces significant challenges while hosting 2.8 million Venezuelan migrants and refugees, which impacts its ability to combat transnational criminal groups. Both countries are working to improve security cooperation and reduce irregular migration. Colombia must balance its regional leadership role in managing the Venezuelan crisis while maintaining communication channels without legitimizing Maduro’s administration.
Future Outlook
The security situation’s evolution depends largely on the outcome of the February 2025 general elections and subsequent policies. Additionally, Colombia’s ability to engage in dialogue with armed groups is contingent on political developments in Venezuela, which serves as a guarantor of peace talks with FARC dissidents and the ELN, and provides a safe haven for their leadership. Notably, President Petro has indicated he won’t recognize a new Maduro government without proper electoral validation.
