Population of Iran: demographics, population centres and projections
Introduction
The population of Iran is a topic of regional and global significance: it shapes domestic policy, economic planning and international migration dynamics. Understanding Iran’s size, age structure, religious composition and future trajectory helps readers grasp pressures on services, labour markets and geopolitics across the Middle East. Recent datasets and expert compilations offer differing current estimates and long‑term projections, making clarity important for planners and the public alike.
Main body
Current size and age structure
Sources vary on Iran’s present population. Some datasets describe Iran as having “over 78 million” people, while other summaries place the figure nearer to 92 million and list Iran as the world’s 17th‑largest country by population and land area. Whatever the precise current total, the population is comparatively young: nearly 60% are below the age of 39 according to United Nations statistics. The sex ratio is slightly weighted towards males (about 1.03 males per female) with median ages of roughly 35.29 years for men and 35.74 years for women.
Religion, diversity and refugees
Iran’s religious makeup is dominated by Shi’a Islam (about 89%), with Sunni Muslims making up roughly 10% and the remaining 1% composed of Christians, Zoroastrians, Baha’is and Jews. Iran also hosts one of the world’s largest refugee populations—more than one million people, mainly from Iraq and Afghanistan—adding further complexity to demographic planning.
Population distribution and history
Most people live in the western half of the country where mountains and fertile valleys support large settlements. Major cities include Tehran and Mashhad; Mashhad is reported to have around 3.4 million residents. Historically, Iran’s population was under 10 million from 1880 until about 1920, after which rapid growth occurred through the 20th century.
UN projections to 2100
The UN World Population Prospects (2024 revision) provides long‑range scenarios that differ substantially: the “No change” variant indicates a 2100 population of about 70.2 million, while a “Momentum” variant projects roughly 105 million by 2100. These divergent paths reflect uncertainty in future fertility, mortality and migration trends.
Conclusion
Readers should note that available sources give different current totals but agree on key characteristics: a relatively young population, a Shi’a majority, significant refugee presence and concentration in western regions. Long‑term prospects remain uncertain—policy choices, migration flows and demographic change will determine whether Iran’s population stabilises or grows considerably over the coming decades.
