Iraq’s Pivotal Year: Balancing Sovereignty, Security and Development in 2025
A Nation at a Crossroads
Iraq continues its recovery from cycles of conflict while working to rebuild domestically and reintegrate into the international community. The country faces multiple challenges, including the need to improve governance and diversify its economy.
Political Developments and Democratic Progress
The nation is preparing for parliamentary elections scheduled for November 11, coinciding with the planned withdrawal of the United Nations Mission. A significant milestone was reached with the completion of Iraq’s first nationwide census in 40 years. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has been actively working to strengthen Iraq-U.S. partnership beyond security matters, focusing on energy, education, and investment while maintaining a careful balance to avoid regional conflicts.
Economic and Environmental Challenges
The International Monetary Fund estimates that comprehensive reforms covering labor market, business regulation, financial sector, and governance could double non-oil potential GDP growth. Key priorities include increasing labor force participation, particularly among women, through improved female education and reducing barriers to their work and mobility.
The country faces significant environmental challenges, ranking among the most vulnerable to global warming. These include droughts, desertification, increased sandstorms, pollution, and rising temperatures. There is growing concern about health impacts on communities near oil and gas production sites, particularly from gas flaring.
Security and Regional Relations
A significant development in Iraq’s security landscape is the understanding reached with the United States regarding the withdrawal of remaining 2,500 US troops by the end of 2026. Iraq’s political elite, regardless of their ideological or ethno-sectarian alignment, remain cautious about involvement in regional conflicts. Even factions historically close to Iran have shown restraint, as they now serve as both beneficiaries and stewards of the state.
Looking Ahead
The watchword for Iraq in 2025 is “sovereignty.” Despite challenges including reducing oil dependency, ensuring political stability amid sectarian divides, and managing environmental crises, the government’s primary focus remains on protecting the state. The upcoming federal elections present both challenges and pivotal opportunities for shaping the country’s direction, particularly important given the drastically changing regional dynamics marked by evolving conflicts and diplomatic relationships.
