Belarus Under Lukashenko: Extended Rule Amid Growing International Isolation and Human Rights Concerns

Political Landscape and Recent Elections

Presidential elections were held in Belarus on 26 January 2025, with incumbent president Alexander Lukashenko winning yet another term – his seventh since 1994. International monitors have deemed all but his first election neither free nor fair.

The election was marked by severe restrictions, with independent media forced to operate from abroad or shut down entirely. While there were four other candidates on the ballot besides Lukashenko, three represented pro-government parties, and the single independent candidate faced accusations of being a government stooge.

Human Rights Crisis

According to a recent UN Human Rights Council report, Belarusian authorities are committing widespread human rights violations that may amount to crimes against humanity. The systematic campaign targets LGBTQIA+ individuals, political activists, and journalists, implementing sweeping legal changes aimed at eliminating all forms of dissent.

The authorities systematically detain critics on politically motivated charges, often using excessive force, threats, and intimidation. Detainees report severe abuse, including beatings, electric shocks, and threats of violence against themselves and family members.

International Response

The European Union has imposed sanctions against Belarus in response to human rights abuses and its support for Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. These sanctions aim to pressure the Belarusian leadership to prevent further violence, release all political prisoners, and initiate genuine national dialogue. The EU has expressed readiness to support a peaceful democratic transition with various instruments, including a comprehensive economic support plan.

Future Prospects

Recent statements by Lukashenko referring to ‘generational change in the coming years’ have sparked speculation about potential power transition. While debates continue over the timing and nature of such a transition, changes are already underway, creating challenges for both Belarusian political actors and Western nations – though perhaps less so for the Kremlin.

Despite ongoing state repression, a significant portion of Belarusian society continues to access independent media for news, particularly during times of crisis. However, the impact of such media remains limited, especially considering that at least 200,000 people, many of them active regime opponents, have left Belarus since the 2020 election.