Belarus in 2025: Lukashenko’s Continued Rule Raises Questions About Nation’s Future

A Controversial Victory and International Response

Belarus’s longtime leader Alexander Lukashenko has secured his seventh term in office, with exit polls showing him winning 87.6% of the vote in the presidential election. This marks the first presidential election since the crushing of mass protests in 2020 and Belarus’s involvement in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Political Landscape and Opposition

The regime has systematically eliminated opposition by shutting down independent media, closing over 1,700 non-profit civic organizations, banning all but four political parties loyal to the regime, and imprisoning more than 1,300 political prisoners. An estimated 300,000 Belarusians have left the country since 2020, primarily to Poland and Lithuania, and were unable to participate in the vote as Belarus has eliminated voting abroad.

Growing Russian Influence

Lukashenko’s political survival has become increasingly dependent on Vladimir Putin, with Belarus essentially becoming a Russian protectorate. The country served as a staging ground for Russian troops during the Ukraine invasion and has agreed to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons on its territory.

Economic and Cultural Impact

The Belarusian economy heavily relies on Russian subsidies, with two-thirds of its trade conducted with Russia. Moscow’s support has helped stabilize the economy against international sanctions. Additionally, the Belarusian national identity and language have been gradually marginalized in favor of Russian, as both leaders work to strengthen ‘historical’ imperial ties.

Future Prospects

In a surprising development, Lukashenko has recently signaled he may not seek another term in office, while dismissing speculation about grooming his son as successor. He stated that whoever replaces him should ‘not break anything right away’ but continue developing the country to avoid any ‘revolutionary breakdown’. Some observers suggest Lukashenko might attempt to improve relations with the West, with analysts noting his potential readiness to start a dialogue and desire to normalize ties to reduce dependence on the Kremlin and soften Western sanctions during his seventh term.